Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Convergent functional genomics of anxiety disorders: translational identification of genes, biomarkers, pathways and mechanisms

Anxiety disorders are prevalent and disabling yet understudied from a genetic standpoint, compared with other major psychiatric disorders such as bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. The fact that they are more common, diverse and perceived as embedded in normal life may explain this relative oversight. In addition, as for other psychiatric disorders, there are technical challenges related to the identification and validation of candidate genes and peripheral biomarkers. Human studies, particularly genetic ones, are susceptible to the issue of being underpowered, because of genetic heterogeneity, the effect of variable environmental exposure on gene expression, and difficulty of accrual of large, well phenotyped cohorts. Animal model gene expression studies, in a genetically homogeneous and experimentally tractable setting, can avoid artifacts and provide sensitivity of detection. Subsequent translational integration of the animal model datasets with human genetic and gene expression datasets can ensure cross-validatory power and specificity for illness. We have used a pharmacogenomic mouse model (involving treatments with an anxiogenic drug—yohimbine, and an anti-anxiety drug—diazepam) as a discovery engine for identification of anxiety candidate genes as well as potential blood biomarkers. Gene expression changes in key brain regions for anxiety (prefrontal cortex, amygdala and hippocampus) and blood were analyzed using a convergent functional genomics (CFG) approach, which integrates our new data with published human and animal model data, as a translational strategy of cross-matching and prioritizing findings. Our work identifies top candidate genes (such as FOS, GABBR1, NR4A2, DRD1, ADORA2A, QKI, RGS2, PTGDS, HSPA1B, DYNLL2, CCKBR and DBP), brain–blood biomarkers (such as FOS, QKI and HSPA1B), pathways (such as cAMP signaling) and mechanisms for anxiety disorders—notably signal transduction and reactivity to environment, with a prominent role for the hippocampus. Overall, this work complements our previous similar work (on bipolar mood disorders and schizophrenia) conducted over the last decade. It concludes our programmatic first pass mapping of the genomic landscape of the triad of major psychiatric disorder domains using CFG, and permitted us to uncover the significant genetic overlap between anxiety and these other major psychiatric disorders, notably the under-appreciated overlap with schizophrenia. PDE10A, TAC1 and other genes uncovered by our work provide a molecular basis for the frequently observed clinical co-morbidity and interdependence between anxiety and other major psychiatric disorders, and suggest schizo-anxiety as a possible new nosological domain

Convergent functional genomic studies of omega-3 fatty acids in stress reactivity, bipolar disorder and alcoholism

Omega-3 fatty acids have been proposed as an adjuvant treatment option in psychiatric disorders. Given their other health benefits and their relative lack of toxicity, teratogenicity and side effects, they may be particularly useful in children and in females of child-bearing age, especially during pregnancy and postpartum. A comprehensive mechanistic understanding of their effects is needed. Here we report translational studies demonstrating the phenotypic normalization and gene expression effects of dietary omega-3 fatty acids, specifically docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), in a stress-reactive knockout mouse model of bipolar disorder and co-morbid alcoholism, using a bioinformatic convergent functional genomics approach integrating animal model and human data to prioritize disease-relevant genes. Additionally, to validate at a behavioral level the novel observed effects on decreasing alcohol consumption, we also tested the effects of DHA in an independent animal model, alcohol-preferring (P) rats, a well-established animal model of alcoholism. Our studies uncover sex differences, brain region-specific effects and blood biomarkers that may underpin the effects of DHA. Of note, DHA modulates some of the same genes targeted by current psychotropic medications, as well as increases myelin-related gene expression. Myelin-related gene expression decrease is a common, if nonspecific, denominator of neuropsychiatric disorders. In conclusion, our work supports the potential utility of omega-3 fatty acids, specifically DHA, for a spectrum of psychiatric disorders such as stress disorders, bipolar disorder, alcoholism and beyond

Host-region parameters for an adjustable model for crustal earthquakes to facilitate the implementation of the backbone approach to building ground-motion logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

he backbone approach to constructing a ground-motion logic-tree for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can address shortcomings in the traditional approach of populating the branches with multiple existing, or potentially modified, ground-motion models (GMM) by rendering more transparent the relationship between branch weights and the resulting distribution of predicted accelerations. In order to capture epistemic uncertainty in a tractable manner, there are benefits in building the logic tree through the application of successive adjustments for differences in source, path and site characteristics between the host-region of the selected backbone GMM and the target region for which the PSHA is being conducted. The implementation of this approach is facilitated by selecting a backbone GMM that is amenable to such host-to-target adjustments for individual source, path, and site characteristics. The NGA-West2 GMM of Chiou and Youngs (2014, CY14) has been identified as a highly adaptable model for crustal seismicity that is well suited to such adjustments. Rather than using generic source, path and site characteristics assumed appropriate for the host region, the final suite of adjusted GMMs for the target region will be better constrained if the host-region parameters are defined specifically on the basis of their compatibility with the CY14 backbone GMM. To this end, making use of a recently developed crustal shear-wave velocity profile consistent with CY14, we present an inversion of the model to estimate the key source and path parameters, namely the stress parameter and the anelastic attenuation. With these outputs, the effort in constructing a ground-motion logic-tree for any PSHA dealing with crustal seismicity can be focused primarily on the estimation of the target-region characteristics and their associated uncertainties. The inversion procedure can also be adapted for any application in which different constraints might be relevan

Capturing epistemic uncertainty in site response

The incorporation of local amplification factors determined through site response analyses has become standard practice in site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Another indispensable feature of the current state-of-practice in site-specific PSHA is the identification and quantification of all epistemic uncertainties that influence the final hazard estimates. Consequently, logic trees are constructed not only for seismic source characteristics and ground-motion models (GMMs) but also for the site amplification factors, the latter generally characterized by branches for alternative shear-wave velocity (VS) profiles. However, in the same way that branch weights on alternative GMMs can give rise to unintentionally narrow distributions of predicted ground-motion amplitudes, the distribution of amplification factors obtained from a small number of weighted VS profiles will often be quite narrow at some oscillator frequencies. We propose an alternative approach to capturing epistemic uncertainty in site response in order to avoid such unintentionally constricted distributions of amplification factors using more complete logic-trees for site response analyses. Nodes are included for all the factors that influence the calculated amplification factors, which may include shallow VS profiles, deeper VS profiles, depth of impedance contrasts, low-strain soil damping, and choice of modulus reduction and damping curves. Site response analyses are then executed for all branch combinations to generate a large number 2 of frequency-dependent amplification factors. Finally, these are re-sampled as a discrete distribution with enough branches to capture the underlying distribution of amplification factors (AFs). While this approach improves the representation of epistemic uncertainty in the dynamic site response characteristics, modeling uncertainty in the AFs is not automatically captured in this way, for which reason it is also proposed that a minimum level of epistemic uncertainty should be imposed on the final distribution